Measured continuously since 2015
Traditional trade in Kenya
Every Kenyan commercial team works with two pictures that do not reconcile.
A formal-trade read that is precise and covers about a third of the market, and a field impression that covers the rest and quantifies nothing.
- 65–70%
- Of Kenyan retail is informal
- ~⅓
- Of the market the formal read covers
- 2015
- Continuous measurement begins
- 10 yrs
- Of store-level record
[ Kenya at a glance ]
- Channel weight
- Between 65 and 70 percent of Kenyan retail is informal.
- Channel structure
- The Kenyan duka network is dense, fragmented and turns fast.
- Formal coverage
- A formal-trade read in Kenya is precise but covers only about a third of the market.
- Replenishment
- Kenyan dukas buy on a short cash cycle, so listing depth is capped by working capital rather than by shelf.
- Category record
- Native has measured the Kenyan alcohol category continuously at store level since 2015.
- Native coverage
- Native reads category movement, share and store conditions across the channels where the Kenyan market actually trades.
The trade in Kenya
The duka network is dense, fragmented and turns fast, which is the exact profile that defeats measurement designed for organized retail. Category dynamics inside a duka in Kawangware and a supermarket in Westlands are not variations on a theme.
[ Inferring one from the other is where competitive position quietly leaks. ]
/a
Dense and fragmented
The duka network is the exact profile that defeats measurement designed for organized retail.
/b
Turns fast
Stock turns quickly, so channel conditions change faster than an annual read can follow.
/c
Kawangware ≠ Westlands
Category dynamics in a duka and in a supermarket are not variations on a theme.
65–70%
of Kenyan retail is informal — a network that is dense, fragmented and turns fast.
How stock reaches the shelf
Replenishment runs through distributors and wholesale into a duka buying on a short cash cycle, so listing depth is capped by working capital rather than by shelf. Availability moves week to week.
Supply
Distributors + wholesale
Replenishment runs upstream of the duka, one step removed from where it can be observed.
Decision
The duka's cash cycle
Buying is short-cycle. Listing depth is capped by working capital rather than by shelf.
Outcome
The shelf
Availability moves week to week rather than settling into a plan.
- Listing depth is capped by working capital rather than by shelf.
- A stock-out reflects the store's position more often than the brand's.
What conventional measurement misses
A panel built on formal tills in Nairobi describes a third of the country and infers the rest. Nowhere does that cost more than in alcohol, where excise moves are frequent and elasticity is seasonal.
Continuous alcohol-category measurement in Kenya runs from 2015 to now, covering brand performance, pricing, pack architecture, availability and regional variation at store level.
~⅓
of the country is what a panel built on formal tills in Nairobi describes. The rest is inferred.
One quarter shows what happened after a single tax change. Ten years show what the trade does every time.
How Native reads Kenya
Strata reads category and competitive movement against that record, and Ratio One measures whether share actually moved. Contributor capture keeps store conditions current across the channels where the market trades, and Lattice carries the outlet map where distribution expansion is the question. Access is modular, and the layers compound when combined.
- 2015
- Category read continuously since
- 10 yrs
- Of store-level record
- Modular
- Each layer stands alone